Entrepreneurs: What could the world look like in the year 2050?

[Arvo Lennart Vercamer]

I think that the world, in 2050, will be whatever we make it to be. Less philosophically..... Population: 6.3B in 2007; 7.85B by 2025; 8.9/9.5B by 2050. 98% of this growth will be in developing nations. As the age structure of the population changes, the share of the young decline and that of the elderly will grow, impacting economic/social policies, and hence, affecting sustainable development. Of importance to note is that within a few short years, a significant number of "Baby Boomers" will be retiring. This will be the single most important event impacting the way the world conducts its business in the next 5-10 years and well beyond. It goes without saying that it will be impossible to calculate how much "knowledge" the departing Baby-Boomers will take with them and how much of an impact this "departing knowledge" will have on business. Technology advances, consumption patterns, unequal wealth distribution, and the choices people/governments make- all these things have an impact on demographics -- which in turn affects social and economic outcomes, and, consequently, the future of nations. Let's look at a few important points:

Urbanization: Is projected to increase from 48%/2003 to 61%/2030; it may approach 70% by 2050. The highest urbanization growth rates are expected to be in Africa and Latin America. Much of the urbanization will be in smaller cities/growing rural communities, not in the mega-cities. As these urban regions grow, they will need considerable investments in their infrastructures. Lot's of market opportunities to consider.

Environment: Energy efficiency is expected to continue to increase. Water access challenges will increase worldwide; mostly in Africa/the Middle East/South Asia/Northern Mainland China. Land degradation/deforestation will continue to worsen from now to 2050. Greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise under even the most environmentally friendly scenarios. The global average surface temperature is projected to increase through 2100.

Food: Food prices are declining; world food production/trade are increasing. Food security for the poor will only improve slowly. Sub-Saharan Africa will experience little improvement in per capita calorie availability by 2050. Slowly declining world food prices and buoyant international trade will coexist with continuing malnutrition throughout the world.

Economic Growth: The world is projected to grow at 4.5% for the next few years. Risks remain: large US deficits; surpluses in Asia; addressing medium-term fiscal situations in many developed and developing countries, etc. Developing country growth, on a per capita basis, is projected to more than double during the next ten years compared with the performance of the 1990's. A continued divergence in GDP per capita between Sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world is projected.

Energy: This is the fuel for growth, a neccessity for economic/social development. By 2050, energy demand could increase by 2x/3x as populations increase and developing countries expand their economies/overcome poverty. Transitions in energy infrastructures will be needed, like those of the last 100 years. In 2000, only 1/6 people had access to regular supplies of energy. These 1B people consumed over 50% of the world’s energy supplies, while the 1B poorest people used only 4%. Europe/Japan, experiencing population declines through 2050, may well use this period to upgrade/refit their energy infrastructures, vice new project investments.
Education: By 2015, many regions will have achieved the target of universal public education - however, South Asia is struggling and most of Sub-Saharan Africa will miss the target by a wide margin.

Health: 34-46M people live with HIV/AIDS, 2/3's in Africa; it will reduce life expectancy in Africa from 49.2 years recently to under 46 in 2010. Communicable disease deaths will decline, but non-communicable disease deaths may increase. Global warming could increase malaria cases from 50M a year to 80M by 2100.

Technology: Internet access - 8 countries had access to the internet in 1988, 209 countries had access to the internet in 2003, most everyone else should have access to the internet by 2050. Cell-phone subscriptions have now surpassed fixed line subscribers. There is a large digital divide between low and high income groups; but it is shrinking between wealthy and poor countries. Advances in medical technology will change health care; we may even see robot surgeons in the OR by 2050.

Looking at future projections could help you to be better prepared to succeed in the markets of tomorrow. How far into the market future have you looked at?